Complex Tracker

For the Maine, Michigan, and Texas Senate races, I will be providing in-depth analysis of polling and previous electoral results in the state. Because of the sheer number of polls available, I only analyze polls labeled as "select pollsters" by The New York Times.

For each of these Senate races, I do each of the following:

1. Compare historical polling averages with election results, examining past errors and any methodological improvements.

2. Analyze current polling data, placing special emphasis on youth turnout rates and voting tendencies.

3. Assess potential changes in age-based turnout.

Using this information, I will provide my personal prediction for which turnout scenario will be most likely, and—as a result—who I believe will win the election. This prediction is my own opinion and should not be treated as fact.

To learn more about my Senate polling project, check out the Senate Polls page. Click on the links below to check out my trackers and polling aggregates.