Michigan Senate Election — El-Sayed v Rogers

In November of 2026, Democratic nominee Dr. Abdul El-Sayed will face Republican nominee Michael (Mike) J. Rogers in the Senate midterm election. On this page, I will highlight key findings that are useful when considering polling results. I have sourced all polling, as well as data on which polls are from "select pollsters," from The New York Times. Click here to check their polling site.

Polling Insights

I only cover polls from groups labeled as "select pollsters" by The New York Times. Visit their site to learn about their criteria for select pollsters. These findings summarize my analysis of multiple previous election cycles. For more detail on specific polls, click here.

So far, polling suggests a few things:

1. El-Sayed is performing well. He is consistently beating Rogers in polls where respondents favored Donald Trump over Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential election. No major pollsters are finding that Rogers has a lead in the election.
   
   

2. Democrats are more popular than El-Sayed. Democrats as a whole dominate, with a consistent majority of respondents stating they would favor Democrats over Republicans winning the Senate. This means that El-Sayed needs to do some catch-up work with Democratic-leaning voters who nevertheless oppose him.
   
   

3. Benson and El-Sayed are similarly popular candidates. Recent polling suggests that, as the gubernatorial election has become more well-known, Benson is favored by poll respondents at around the same rate as El-Sayed. Some polling shows Benson with a clearer lead than El-Sayed, but as of now, neither candidate has clearly broken ahead of the other in terms of popularity.
   
   

4. Low predicted younger-voter turnout. As is expected in most elections, younger voters are significantly less likely to turn out. However, there are discrepancies between polls in predicting just how many young voters will turn out, meaning there is likely disagreement as to how large of a percentage of the electorate they will be.

I will continue updating these findings until Election Day.

Understanding Data From Previous Election Cycles

I analyzed data from three previous election cycles: the 2022 midterm election, the 2024 general election, and the 2026 primaries. Here are my main findings:

1. Previous elections provide useful benchmarks, but none are a direct match for 2026. The 2024 Senate election occurred during a presidential cycle, while midterms generally attract lower turnout, particularly among younger voters. Slotkin and El-Sayed may also draw different coalitions due to their differing political views. The 2022 midterms can suggest how turnout might look in the 2026 midterms, but Michigan had no Senate contest that year, leading to a different turnout group. These differences limit how confidently I can predict age-based turnout in 2026.
   
   

2. Predictions based on demographics proved accurate. In the 2026 Democratic primary, Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times found that "polls did seem to understand the underlying dynamics of the [primary]," accurately capturing El-Sayed's success with young voters and Stevens' strength with Black voters and suburban communities. This suggests that demographic patterns are accurate predictors even when polls overestimate a candidate’s lead, meaning my age-based analysis of polling data can prove useful
   
   

3. Polling historically underestimates Republican support. In the 2024 general election, the 270toWin polling average accurately predicted Elissa Slotkin’s support but underestimated support for Mike Rogers (who is also the Republican nominee in 2026) by nearly four percentage points, turning an apparent four-point lead into a very narrow victory. In the midterms, Rogers may end up with a higher vote share than is expected in polling. Importantly, Elissa Slotkin is more politically moderate than El-Sayed, meaning these polling inaccuracies may not reflect the outcomes in 2026.
   
   

4. Michigan has relatively strong youth participation. Michigan led the country in youth turnout in the 2022 midterms, with roughly 37% of eligible 18- to 29-year-olds voting. Nevertheless, the state’s report found that 59.2% of active registered voters in that age group did not cast a ballot. Strong support among younger voters therefore represents potential electoral strength whose impact depends on participation.

Taken together, these elections support comparing how the outcome changes under lower, typical, and higher participation from younger voters. Because previous election cycles do not provide an accurate representation of likely turnout for different age demographics, I will use this cycle's polling to predict the most likely outcome but provide alternative likely outcomes based on demographics.

These findings summarize my analysis of multiple previous election cycles. For more detail on each election cycle, click here.