Michigan Polling Insights
Michigan Polling Insights
Embedded Files
Simple Aggregate
Simple Aggregate
This tracker uses the latest polling data to show current voter preferences and election trends. The data is weighted based on recency, with polling from groups labeled as "select pollsters" by The New York Times being weighted as more significant than other polls. This tracker does not factor in how each poll was conducted beyond considering whether they are "select" or how recent they are. Scroll down for more information on what specific polls are suggesting.
Key Insights
Key Insights
I will only cover polls from groups labeled as "select pollsters" by The New York Times. Visit their site to learn about their criteria for select pollsters. When major breaking stories cause a significant shift in polling, I will label polls taken before the story as such.
So far, polling suggests a few things:
El-Sayed is performing well. He is consistently beating Rogers in polls where respondents favored Donald Trump over Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential election. No major pollsters are finding that Rogers has a lead in the election.
Democrats are more popular than El-Sayed. Democrats as a whole dominate, with a consistent majority of respondents stating they would favor Democrats over Republicans winning the Senate. This means that El-Sayed needs to do some catch-up work with Democratic-leaning voters who nevertheless oppose him.
Benson is more popular than El-Sayed. Recent polling suggests that, as the gubernatorial election has become more well-known, Democratic nominee Jocelyn Benson is more popular among poll respondents than El-Sayed. This difference may be attributed to their differing political stances (Benson is more moderate than El-Sayed), but may also be the result of El-Sayed's religion and ethnicity, which some voters say they feel uncomfortable with.
Low predicted younger-voter turnout. As is expected in most elections, younger voters are significantly less likely to turn out. However, there are discrepancies between polls in predicting just how many young voters will turn out, meaning there is likely disagreement as to how large of a percentage of the electorate they will be.
Specific Polls
Specific Polls
Scroll below to see what information I found for each poll coming from a select pollster.
Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research
Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research
This poll was conducted between September 24th and September 28th, with a sample size of 1,028 likely Michigan voters. It was sponsored by Fox News.
Click here to see the original data.
Important Information
Results By Age Group:*
(El-Sayed v Rogers)
Important Information
Results By Age Group:*
(El-Sayed v Rogers)
Under 45 54% - 46%
Over 45 46% - 50%
Fox News provided less age-related data this time than in previous cycles.
*Age Range is Estimated
I estimated the age range based on the given information and the margin of error for each age group. Click here to read how I calculated this information.
Final Major Pollster Predicts El-Sayed Victory
Beacon/Shaw was previously the only pollster who predicted that El-Sayed would lose the election to Rogers. Now that they predict an El-Sayed victory, there is no select pollster remaining which predicts that Rogers will win.
Low "Undecided" Figure
Polls from Beacon/Shaw continue to have a remarkably low "Undecided" figure relative to other polls, making them an outlier.
Marist University
Marist University
This poll was conducted between September 24th and September 27th, with a sample size of 1,235 registered Michigan voters.
Click here to see the original data.
Age Range
Age Range
18-29 12%
30-44 26%
45-64 33%
65+ 29%
Under 45 38%
Over 45 62%
Benson Performs Similarly to El-Sayed
Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson performs similarly to El-Sayed, winning by a similar 5-point margin but with one less percentage of the total vote share.
Typical Democrat Outperforms Benson and El-Sayed
52% of respondents would vote for a generic Democrat over a Republican in Congress, a much larger share of respondents than the percentage who will vote for El-Sayed or Benson. This suggests that candidates across the Democratic Party—moderate or progressive—lack total support amongst Democrat-leaning voters. It remains to be seen whether they can gain back footing, or if the Republican candidates will win over these voters.
New York Times / Siena University
New York Times / Siena University
This poll was conducted between September 15th and September 22nd, with a sample size of 605 likely Michigan voters.
Click here to see the original data.
Age Range
Age Range
18-29 12%
30-44 21%
45-64 33%
65+ 32%
NR 3%
Under 45 33%
Over 45 65%
Benson Performs Similarly to El-Sayed
Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson performs similarly to El-Sayed, winning by a similar 5-point margin but with one less percentage of the total vote share.
Typical Democrat Outperforms Benson and El-Sayed
52% of respondents would vote for a generic Democrat over a Republican in Congress, a much larger share of respondents than the percentage who will vote for El-Sayed or Benson. This suggests that candidates across the Democratic Party—moderate or progressive—lack total support amongst Democrat-leaning voters. It remains to be seen whether they can gain back footing, or if the Republican candidates will win over these voters.
Suffolk University
Suffolk University
This poll was conducted between September 16th and September 20th, with a sample size of 500 likely Michigan voters.
Click here to see the original data.
Age Range
Age Range
18-24 05%
25-34 17%
35-44 16%
45-54 17%
55-64 17%
65-74 16%
75+ 11%
NR 01%
Under 45 38%
Over 45 61%
Major Skew Towards Benson
Just 33% of respondents stated they would vote for the Republican, John James, in the gubernatorial election, compared to 51% for Benson. Benson outperforms El-Sayed by four points.
Third-Party Voters Support Rogers
Of the 13 respondents who selected a third-party candidate (e.g., Libertarian Lydia Christensen), 85% supported Rogers, and 15% were undecided. None supported El-Sayed.
Non-Representative of Populace
48% of respondents stated they voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, compared with just 42% who stated they voted for Donald Trump. Given that Kamala Harris lost the 2024 election, the poll is likely not representative of the actual electorate.
Continued Opposition to Data Centers
70% of respondents stated that they oppose "current federal tax breaks and other federal policies that were put in place to encourage and speed up the development of data centers," making this a potent talking point for El-Sayed and Benson.
Washington Post / Schar School
Washington Post / Schar School
This poll was conducted between September 10th and September 14th, with a sample size of 1,000 likely Michigan voters.
Click here to see the original data.
Age Range
Age Range
18-39 29%
40-64 38%
65+ 33%
Under 40 29%
Over 40 71%
Benson & Democrats are More Popular
Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson outperforms El-Sayed dramatically, winning with a 12-point margin and 53% of the vote.
53% of respondents stated they wanted Democrats to control the Senate, a much larger share of respondents than the percentage who will vote for El-Sayed. This signals that—unlike with the Emerson College polls, people polled by the Washington Post actively oppose El-Sayed while simultaneously strongly favoring the Democratic party.
Emerson College
Emerson College
This poll was conducted between September 12th and September 14th, with a sample size of 1,000 likely Michigan voters.
Click here to see the original data.
Age Range
Age Range
18-29 11%
30-39 13%
40-49 16%
50-59 19%
60-69 20%
70+ 22%
Under 40 24%
Under 50 43%
Over 50 57%
Over 40 76%
Low Expected Turnout For Under-40 Group
The expected percentage of the electorate in the under-40 group, as with previous polls, remains low. This data is somewhat hard to compare, as pollsters lack a standardized set of age ranges to vary based on.
Polls have significant discrepancies: Susquehanna has the same under-45 rate as Emerson's under-40 rate, whereas CNN has nearly the same under-35 rate as Emerson's under-40 rate. Beacon / Shaw & Company appears relatively similar.
Plurality of Voters Supported Trump
Support for Trump surpassed support for Kamala by approximately 1.4 points (48.0 vs. 46.6), meaning El-Sayed has won over a portion of Trump voters in this race.
Benson is More Popular*
Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson outperforms El-Sayed with a near 7-point lead. However, her vote share is just .4% higher than El-Sayed's (48.6% vs. 48.2%), suggesting El-Sayed's more progressive stance has not dramatically affected his support in Michigan.
CNN / SSRS
CNN / SSRS
This poll was conducted between August 31st and September 6th, with a sample size of 843 likely Michigan voters.
Click here to see the original data.
Age Range*
Age Range*
18-34 20%
35-49 25%
50-64 23%
65+ 31%
Under 45 35%
Over 45 65%
*Age Range is Estimated
I estimated the age range based on the given information and the margin of error for each age group. Click here to read how I calculated this information.
Trump is Deeply Unpopular
Per CNN's polling analysis, about two-thirds of voters in Michigan disapprove of Donald Trump's performance as President. The share of voters who say they are dissatisfied or angry with the way things are going in the country far outpaces the share who are satisfied or enthusiastic.
Democratic Party is More Popular than El-Sayed
54% of respondents stated they would prefer that Democrats win the Senate—7 points higher than the margin who stated they wanted to vote for El-Sayed. While undecided voters may eventually swing towards El-Sayed, this suggests dissatisfaction with El-Sayed as the nominee.
Epic MRA
Epic MRA
This poll was conducted between August 22nd and August 28th, with a sample size of 600 likely Michigan voters.
Click here to see the original data.
Age Range
Age Range
Epic MRA did not provide information on individuals' age range.
Strong Support for Medicare for All
62% of voters stated they would support the national health insurance program "Medicare for All," with 43% stating they would strongly support the policy. Notably, the poll is almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans (43% vs 40%), suggesting bipartisan support for the policy.
Abdul El-Sayed co-authored a book on Medicare for All, meaning this support could help swing votes toward him.
El-Sayed Beats Benson
Unlike more recent polls, El-Sayed was found to be leading Benson, who is favored 45% to 41% in her race. The higher undecided count suggests this discrepancy may come from voters being less aware of the gubernatorial race rather than Benson genuinely having less support.
Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.
Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.
This poll was conducted between August 11th and August 17th, with a sample size of 800 registered Michigan voters.
Click here to see the original data.
Age Range
Age Range
18-29 7%
30-44 17%
45-54 15%
55-64 21%
65-74 19%
75+ 20%
NR 0%
Under 45 24%
Over 45 76%
Data Misrepresentation
According to a confidential memo leaked by Politico, Susquehanna's data may have misrepresented the proportion of college-educated voters who will participate in the general election. These voters will disproportionately favor El-Sayed over Rogers, suggesting the race may be closer than the poll suggests.
Strong Partisan Voting
El-Sayed "leads Rogers 91%-0% with self-identified Democrats
Rogers "leads El-Sayed 90%-2% with Republicans."
El-Sayed Leads Independents
El-Sayed leads Rogers 46%-24% with unaffiliated voters.
Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research
Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research
This poll was conducted between August 6th and August 10th, with a sample size of 1,006 likely Michigan voters. It was sponsored by Fox News.
Click here to see the original data.
Important Information
Results By Age Group:*
(El-Sayed v Rogers)
Important Information
Results By Age Group:*
(El-Sayed v Rogers)
18-29 54% - 43%
30-44 52% - 48%
45-64 42% - 56%
65+ 46% - 50%
*Age Group Results are Estimated
I estimated the age range based on the given information and the margin of error for each age group. Click here to read how I calculated this information.
Low "Undecided" Figure
The poll has a remarkably low "Undecided" figure relative to other polls, making it an outlier.
Weak Support for El-Sayed Amongst Younger Voters
Just 57% of voters between the ages of 18-29 stated they would vote for El-Sayed, a lower figure than most other polls have suggested.
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