Texas Polling Insights
Texas Polling Insights
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Simple Polling Aggregate
Simple Polling Aggregate
This tracker uses the latest polling data to show current voter preferences and election trends. The data is weighted based on recency, with polling from groups labeled as "select pollsters" by The New York Times being weighted as more significant than other polls. This tracker does not factor in how each poll was conducted beyond considering whether they are "select" or how recent they are. Scroll down for more information on what specific polls are suggesting.
Key Insights
Key Insights
I will only cover polls from groups labeled as "select pollsters" by The New York Times. Visit their site to learn about their criteria for select pollsters. When major breaking stories cause a significant shift in polling, I will label polls taken before the story as such.
So far, polling suggests a few things:
Talarico appears to have a slight edge, but the race remains competitive. Emerson’s September poll shifted Emerson's polling prediction from a Paxton lead to a Talarico advantage, which aligns with consistent polling showing Talarico ahead. However, the narrow polling lead leaves room for either candidate to win.
Talarico is winning over Independent and Republican Voters. Polls show Talarico comfortably winning with Independents, with a few polls suggesting that he has begun gaining ground with Republicans and former Trump voters. Recent polling from Beacon/Shaw showed Talarico winning over more than 10% of respondents who voted for President Donald Trump in 2024. Given Texas's Republican slant, Talarico will need to maintain support among these groups to win in November.
The generational divide could make turnout decisive. Talarico has a significant lead among voters under 30 but trails with voters over 50. Turnout among voters under the age of 50 will likely have a substantial impact on results, although data on turnout among age groups is less clear.
Hispanic and Black voters are an important source of Talarico’s strength. Many Hispanic voters have switched from supporting Trump in 2024 to Talarico in 2026, which may provide the boost Talarico needs for November. Similarly, Black voters have coalesced around Talarico despite initial tension over his primary victory over Jasmine Crockett. In current models for turnout, these non-white voter groups have been the deciding factor for Talarico's wins.
Talarico outperforms other Democrats. In every poll I analyzed, Talarico outperforms the other Democrats (or the general Democratic Party), suggesting he is uniquely popular among Texas Democrats. While Texas has certainly shifted towards Talarico, it is clear that Texas has not yet become a blue (or even purple) state.
Specific Polls
Specific Polls
Scroll below to see what information I found for each poll coming from a select pollster.
The New York Times / Siena University
The New York Times / Siena University
This poll was conducted between September 21st and September 30th, with a sample size of 615 likely Texas voters.
Click here to see the original data.
Important Information
Results By Age Group:
(Talarico v Paxton)
Important Information
Results By Age Group:
(Talarico v Paxton)
18-29 66% - 22%
30-44 61% - 36%
45-64 49% - 49%
65+ 42% - 56%
Talarico Tied For 45- to 64-Year-Old Voters
While Talarico has consistently outperformed Paxton among voters under 45, this NYT/Siena poll now shows him tied with voters between the ages of 45 and 64, a major demographic in elections. This is a significant shift from results from Marist University, where this same age group preferred Paxton by eleven points.
Talarico Dominates with Black Voters
Despite initial fears over Talarico's ability to attract support from Black voters after he defeated Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary, Black voters have clearly coalesced around Talarico. He leads Paxton 91% to 7% among Black voters in the poll.
Talarico Crushed by Paxton with White Voters
Talarico loses 39% to 59% among White voters, indicating his dependence on support from marginalized groups in the election cycle. His 68% to 28% lead with non-white voters provides a sizeable enough advantage—based on the poll's voter turnout predictions—for Talarico to win the election overall by six points.
Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research
Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research
This poll was conducted between September 24th and September 28th, with a sample size of 881 likely Texas voters.
Click here to see the original data.
Important Information
Results By Age Group:
(Talarico v Paxton)
Important Information
Results By Age Group:
(Talarico v Paxton)
Under 45 61% - 39%
Over 45 46% - 53%
Talarico Dominates With Under-45 Voters
Talarico's 61-39 lead among voters under 45 far outpaces Paxton's 53-46 lead with voters over the age of 45. However, lower expected turnout among voters under 45 allows Paxton to gain back ground in the final polling numbers.
Talarico Outperforms Hinojosa
Democratic Gubernatorial nominee Hinojosa loses in the poll, 47-52, against Governor Greg Abbott. Their different results continue to show Talarico's strength in this red state.
Talarico Gaining Ground With Trump Voters
14% of 2024 Trump voters stated they would vote for Talarico in the 2026 midterms, far more than the 2% of 2024 Harris voters who stated they would vote for Paxton.
Marist University
Marist University
This poll was conducted between September 17th and September 20th, with a sample size of 1,139 registered Texas voters.
Click here to see the original data.
Important Information
Results By Age Group:
(Talarico v Paxton)
Important Information
Results By Age Group:
(Talarico v Paxton)
18-29 74% - 18%
30-44 54% - 34%
45-64 43% - 54%
65+ 39% - 59%
Another Win For Hinojosa
Hinojosa leads Abbott, 49 to 46, among registered voters. While this may be a sign that she is gaining ground and can win her race, it can also be a sign that the respondents may be more skewed towards Democrats than other polling suggests.
Voters Believe Paxton Will Win
52% of respondents believed that the Republican Senate candidate, Ken Paxton, would defeat Talarico in the general election. Notably, this is significantly lower than the percent who believe Greg Abbott will win in November (68%).
Voters Support Democrats Over Republicans
49% of respondents stated they would vote for a Democrat in the House election, whereas just 46% said they would vote for a Republican. Like with the statistic on Hinojosa, this could either be an error or evidence of a dramatic political shift in Texas.
Emerson College
Emerson College
This poll was conducted between September 12th and September 14th, with a sample size of 1,000 likely Texas voters. It was sponsored by Nexstar.
Click here to see the original data.
Important Information
Results By Age Group:
(Talarico v Paxton)
Important Information
Results By Age Group:
(Talarico v Paxton)
18-29 65% - 26%
30-39 54% - 37%
40-49 50% - 43%
50-59 44% - 50%
60-69 40% - 55%
70+ 37% - 59%
Talarico Takes Lead in Emerson Polling
An earlier poll from Emerson College suggested that Paxton was leading in the race. Now, Emerson College aligns with most other polling from August onwards, which suggests that Talarico has a slight edge.
Talarico Continuing to Win Over Trump Voters
Poll respondents voted for Trump over Kamala with a 53% - 41% split, meaning Talarico has continued to retain support among a group that voted with the Republicans in 2024.
Generational Gap Widens
Compared to Emerson's previous results, Talarico performs significantly better among voters under 30 but loses ground with voters over 60.
ReconMR / Siena Research Institute
ReconMR / Siena Research Institute
This poll was conducted between September 8th and September 11th, with a sample size of 614 likely Texas voters.
Important Information
Results By Age Group:
(Talarico v Paxton)
Important Information
Results By Age Group:
(Talarico v Paxton)
18-34 64% - 26%
35-49 54% - 35%
50-64 56% - 37%
65+ 39% - 54%
Talarico Strong With Independents & Attracting Some Republicans
Talarico currently leads 64% to 26% among independents, a group he must win in a typically red state.
6% of voters who identify as Republicans said they would vote for Talarico. Just 87% of Republicans said they would vote for Paxton, compared with 98% who said the same for Talarico.
Results May Be Skewed
The poll suggests that Talarico dominates with 50- to 64-year-olds, something not seen in other polling. The polling also suggests that Hinojosa is leading in the gubernatorial race by 4 points, which is also not reflected in other polls.
Republican Party Still More Popular
Poll respondents stated they would vote for a generic Republican for Congress over a generic Democrat, 47% to 46%, suggesting that both Talarico and Hinojosa have gained ground with Republican voters.
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.
This poll was conducted between September 8th and September 10th, with a sample size of 625 likely Texas voters.
Click here to see the original data.
Important Information
Results By Age Group:
(Talarico v Paxton)
Important Information
Results By Age Group:
(Talarico v Paxton)
18-34 51% - 37%
35-49 42% - 47%
50-64 49% - 41%
65+ 45% - 46%
Intriguing Variation By Age
The group that swung most heavily towards Paxton was 35- to 49-year-olds, a group that—in most polling—favors Talarico.
Continued Support For Talarico from Hispanic Voters
Talarico beats Paxton by an 18-point margin with Hispanic voters in the poll. This is a stark contrast to 2024, when Trump won with this demographic. A continued shift among Hispanic voters would dramatically boost Talarico's odds in November.
Emerson College
Emerson College
This poll was conducted between August 9th and August 10th, with a sample size of 1,000 likely Texas voters. It was sponsored by Nexstar.
Click here to see the original data.
Important Information
Results By Age Group:
(Talarico v Paxton)
Important Information
Results By Age Group:
(Talarico v Paxton)
18-29 54% - 38%
30-39 52% - 38%
40-49 52% - 38%
50-59 42% - 54%
60-69 41% - 52%
70+ 42% - 53%
Talarico Outperforms Hinojosa
Gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa polls four points behind Governor Greg Abbott, meaning some Abbott voters are voting cross-party for the Senate.
Talarico is Winning Over Trump Voters
Poll respondents voted for Trump over Kamala with a 54% - 42% split, meaning Talarico has made up considerable ground with Trump voters.
Hispanic Voters Support Talarico
Talarico beats Paxton by a near 20-point margin with Hispanic/Latinx voters in the poll. This is a stark contrast to 2024, when Trump won with this demographic. A significant shift among Hispanic/Latinx voters could dramatically boost Talarico's odds in November.
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