Previous Election Cycles

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My analysis covers data from the 2024 Presidential cycle, the 2020 Presidential cycle, and the 2018 midterms. I will also cover the ramifications of the 2026 primaries, which were competitive for both parties.

However, the previous race was during a Presidential election cycle, not a midterm, which means turnout—particularly for younger voters—will decrease, making the data less useful for comparison. There has not been a midterm with a Senate election in Michigan since 2018. Furthermore, Elissa Slotkin, a moderate, likely attracted a different demographic compared to the group Abdul El-Sayed will attract in this midterm cycle. Because of these differences, information from previous polls will not be as representative for El-Sayed and Rogers' races.

For past polling aggregates, I will reference polling averages from 270 to Win. Click here to visit their page.

Key Takeaways

Texas is a red state. While Talarico has proven to be a formidable candidate, he must contend with the undeniable reality that Texas does not typically vote for Democrats in Senate races. The closest Senate race in the last twenty years was in 2018, more than eight years ago.
Party unity and voter participation remain important uncertainties. Cornyn’s continued distance from Paxton could create an opening for Talarico. Similarly, Talarico’s support among Democrats who preferred Crockett must translate into actual votes.
Previous elections provide useful information, but none directly match 2026. The 2018 Senate race is most comparable to the race today, occurring in a "blue wave" midterm election; however, the 8-year gap between these two races makes that information hard to trust. Meanwhile, the 2020 and 2024 featured presidential races that attracted different electorates compared to midterm elections. Talarico and Paxton may also attract different coalitions from previous nominees, limiting how directly those results apply.
Polling errors have favored different parties in different cycles. In the previous two Senate elections, the Republican candidate dramatically outperformed polling expectations; in the previous midterm Senate election, the Democratic candidate outperformed polling expectations. The 2018 midterms are particularly interesting because they represent the first time Democrats truly believed they might win the Senate race, a belief that has once again returned with the surge in support for James Talarico.
Talarico's polling advantage is unprecedented. In all other election cycles in the 21st century, the Republican was generally favored in polling. While the data is unclear, Talarico's lead in polls gives him far better odds of winning than all of these former candidates for the Senate seat.

The 2026 Primary Elections

Both the Republican and Democratic primaries in Texas proved hostile, with heated competition between the two top candidates in each race. I will go over the ramifications of each.

The Democratic Primary

The Democratic primary pitted State Representative James Talarico against Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. After losing in the primary, Crockett declined an invitation from Talarico to headline the Texas state convention, claiming that she thought “the invitation was an ‘afterthought’” and that she would be “focusing more on down-ballot candidates.” Although she endorsed Talarico, Crockett stated that "she would support Democrats in local Texas races" instead of actively campaigning for Talarico.

Talarico has performed well despite Crockett's lack of continued support. He has regained ground with groups that were more supportive of Crockett in the primary, including Black voters. Talarico has also dramatically out-fundraised his opponent in the general election: by June 30, his campaign "reported raising $68.6 million" compared to Paxton's "$9.2 million raised." Overall, he has come out of the primary relatively unscathed.

The Republican Primary

The Republican primary pitted Attorney General Ken Paxton against Incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Cornyn lost after Trump's decision to endorse Ken Paxton in the primary due to Paxton's unwavering loyalty to the President. Even after the primary, Cornyn has remained fiercely critical of Paxton, and recently held a Texas fundraiser for several Republican Senate candidates. Paxton was not one of them. Notably, former President George W. Bush attended the fundraiser alongside Cornyn, suggesting a rift between more traditionally conservative Republicans and those adjacent to Trump's "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement.

Unlike Jasmine Crockett, Cornyn declined to officially endorse Paxton, instead vaguely stating that he would support "the Republican ticket." His disapproval seems to have swayed some primary voters, who Talarico embraced with open arms after Cornyn's primary defeat.

What This Means

The two primaries appear to have left Paxton with a more serious challenge to party unity than Talarico. Cornyn’s continued distance from Paxton suggests that divisions within the Republican Party remain unresolved, which could allow Talarico to attract dissatisfied Republicans while maintaining support among Democrats.

However, dissatisfaction with Paxton does not necessarily translate into votes for Talarico. Cornyn’s supporters could ultimately prioritize party loyalty, something some voters told The New York Times they intended to do. While Talarico has a clear fundraising advantage, this does not guarantee victory, as Super PAC donations from outside Republican groups may outpace funding for Talarico.

Ultimately, the general election will test whether the coalitions that won these primaries can expand beyond them. Talarico must persuade Democrats who preferred Crockett to participate while earning the trust of voters who supported Cornyn. Paxton must convince Republicans who opposed his nomination to rally behind him. Trump’s endorsement helped Paxton secure the nomination; November will show whether he can unite enough voters to win the seat.

For more analysis of the Texas primaries, check out my Substack!

Past Polling Discrepancies

Polling often gets elections wrong; it is extremely difficult to predict voter turnout or voting behavior in elections. However, trends sometimes emerge in polling discrepancies, evidenced by Trump's consistent outperformance of polling in Presidential elections. As such, I have analyzed polling discrepancies in recent elections to see what we can potentially learn about today's polls.

2018 Midterms

In 2018, Democratic nominee Beto O'Rourke became the first serious challenger to Republican control of the Senate in Texas in decades. His race remains the closest Democrats have come to winning Texas in the last decade. Although O'Rourke lost his race to Senator Ted Cruz, he lost by an impressively low two-point margin, when 270toWin's polling average predicted that Cruz would win by approximately six points.

2020 Presidential Election Cycle

In 2020, polls predicted that Biden would lose in Texas by just over 1 point. In reality, Trump defeated Biden by nearly six points, mirroring the aforementioned polling inaccuracy in Trump elections. Polls also predicted that Senator John Cornyn would win his race by a 5-point margin; he won by nearly 10.

However, in 2020, there was little expectation that Democrats had a chance to win in Texas, meaning many Democratic voters who may have otherwise voted chose to stay home. Presidential cycles also differ dramatically from midterm cycles, with higher turnout and different types of voters choosing to turn out.

2024 Presidential Election Cycle

In 2024, polls predicted that Harris would lose by 7 points. She ended up losing by a 14-point margin. Polls also underestimated Ted Cruz's margin of victory in 2024 by 5 points. Even more so than in 2020, there was no expectation that Democrats would win Texas, which would lead to lower turnout among Democratic voters.