Texas Senate Election — Talarico v Paxton

In November of 2026, Democratic nominee James Talarico will face Republican nominee Ken Paxton in the Senate midterm election. On this page, I will highlight key findings that are useful when considering polling results. I have sourced all polling, as well as data on which polls are from "select pollsters," from The New York Times. Click here to check their polling site. Click here to check their polling site.

Polling Insights

I only cover polls from groups labeled as "select pollsters" by The New York Times. Visit their site to learn about their criteria for select pollsters. These findings summarize my analysis of multiple previous election cycles. For more detail on specific polls, click here.

So far, polling suggests a few things:

1. Talarico appears to have a slight edge, but the race remains competitive. Emerson’s September poll moved from a Paxton lead to a Talarico advantage, which aligns with consistent polling showing Talarico leading. However, the narrow polling lead leaves room for either candidate to win.
   
   

2. Talarico is winning over Independent and Republican Voters. Polls show Talarico comfortably winning with Independents, with a few polls suggesting that he has begun gaining ground with Republicans and former Trump voters. Recent polling from Beacon/Shaw showed Talarico winning over more than 10% of respondents who voted for President Donald Trump in 2024. Given Texas's Republican slant, Talarico will need to maintain support among these groups to win in November.
   
   

3. The generational divide could make turnout decisive. Talarico has a significant lead among voters under 30 but trails with voters over 50. Turnout among voters under the age of 50 will likely have a substantial impact on results, although data on turnout among age groups is less clear.
   
   

4. Hispanic voters are an important source of Talarico’s strength. Many Hispanic voters have switched from supporting Trump in 2024 to Talarico in 2026, which may provide the boost Talarico needs for November.
   
   

5. Talarico outperforms other Democrats. In every poll I analyzed, Talarico outperforms the other Democrats (or the general Democratic Party), suggesting he is uniquely popular among Texas Democrats. While Texas has certainly shifted towards Talarico, it is clear that Texas has not yet become a blue (or even purple) state.

I will continue updating these findings until Election Day.

Understanding Data From Previous Election Cycles

1. Texas is a red state. While Talarico has proven to be a formidable candidate, he must contend with the undeniable reality that Texas does not typically vote for Democrats in Senate races. The closest Senate race in the last twenty years was in 2018, more than eight years ago.
   
   

2. Party unity and voter participation remain important uncertainties. Cornyn’s continued distance from Paxton could create an opening for Talarico. Similarly, Talarico’s support among Democrats who preferred Crockett must translate into actual votes.
   
   

3. Previous elections provide useful information, but none directly match 2026. The 2018 Senate race is most comparable to the race today, occurring in a "blue wave" midterm election; however, the 8-year gap between these two races makes that information hard to trust. Meanwhile, the 2020 and 2024 featured presidential races that attracted different electorates compared to midterm elections. Talarico and Paxton may also attract different coalitions from previous nominees, limiting how directly those results apply.
   
   

4. Polling errors have favored different parties in different cycles. In the previous two Senate elections, the Republican candidate dramatically outperformed polling expectations; in the previous midterm Senate election, the Democratic candidate outperformed polling expectations. The 2018 midterms are particularly interesting because they represent the first time Democrats truly believed they might win the Senate race, a belief that has once again returned with the surge in support for James Talarico.
   
   

5. Talarico's polling advantage is unprecedented. In all other election cycles in the 21st century, the Republican was generally favored in polling. While the data is unclear, Talarico's lead in polls gives him far better odds of winning than all of these former candidates for the Senate seat.

These findings summarize my analysis of multiple previous election cycles. For more detail on each election cycle, click here.