Maine Senate Election — Jackson v Collins

In November of 2026, Democratic nominee Troy Jackson will face Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins in the Senate midterm election. On this page, I will highlight key findings that are useful when considering polling results. I have sourced all polling, as well as data on which polls are from "select pollsters," from The New York Times. Click here to check their polling site.

Polling Insights

I only cover polls from groups labeled as "select pollsters" by The New York Times. Visit their site to learn about their criteria for select pollsters. These findings summarize my analysis of multiple previous election cycles. For more detail on specific polls, click here.

So far, polling suggests a few things:

1. Jackson appears to have a slight edge, but the race remains competitive. While polling from The New York Times showed Collins leading, my analysis of the voting results by age group suggests that the results are an outlier. However, Jackson's lead remains incredibly narrow in all polling, leaving room for either candidate to win.
   
   

2. Collins's support among Trump voters has not fully solidified. Polling shows Collins with generally strong support among Trump voters, with one recent poll finding that 99% of respondents who voted for Trump in 2024 backed Collins. However, a recent poll from WaPo/Schar found that 5% of 2024 Trump voters now supported Jackson. While Collins consistently retains support from a higher margin of 2024 Harris voters relative to Jackson's margin, this may no longer be enough: Collins has relied on cross-party voting throughout her electoral history, most recently winning re-election in an election cycle where Biden won by a 9-point margin.
   
   

3. Collins outperforms the Republican Party. Unsurprisingly, Susan Collins, who is famous for receiving cross-party votes (votes from individuals who support the Democratic candidate for President) in a solidly Democratic state, outperforms the Republican Party in polling. However, this support is much lower than before, with non-Trump voters now signaling more opposition to Collins due to her voting record: a recent Beacon/Shaw poll found that 55% of respondents were concerned that Collins voted too often with Trump, suggesting that typical cross-party voters may be more hesitant to back Collins.
   
   

4. The generational divide could make turnout decisive. Jackson leads among voters under 45 but trails with voters over 45. Voters over 45 tend to turn out at higher rates, meaning Jackson will have to either gain ground with older voters or attract a larger number of voters under 45. Importantly, however, the gap appears to have narrowed for voters over 65, a strong voting bloc that could propel Jackson to victory.
   
   

5. Jackson outperforms with college-educated voters. Despite Jackson frequently mentioning his working-class background as a Maine logger, he loses to Collins with non-college-educated voters while dominating with college-educated voters. This discrepancy suggests he has failed to successfully appeal to non-college-educated voters as a champion of the working class.

I will continue updating these findings until Election Day.

Understanding Data From Previous Election Cycles

Because so few prior elections have taken place, there is not as much useful information from previous election cycles. Here are the key takeaways:

1. Maine is a blue state. Maine has consistently voted for Democrats in the last 9 Presidential cycles, which—in today's more politically polarized environment—may prove beneficial to Troy Jackson.
   
   

2. Collins has beaten the odds. Susan Collins outperformed polling by a significant margin in 2020, and has consistently won re-election in a deeply Democratic state. This calls Jackson's polling into question and gives Collins very good odds to win once more in November.
   
   

3. Jackson's last-minute entry into the race will harm him. Jackson, a relative newcomer in statewide Maine politics, will have to face an electoral juggernaut who has represented Maine for nearly three decades (she first won in 1996).

These findings summarize my analysis of multiple previous election cycles. For more detail on each election cycle, click here.