Maine Polling Insights

Mixed Results By Age Group

• Jackson performs uncharacteristically poorly with voters under 30 yet beats Collins in every age range, contradicting all other "select polls" I analyzed. However, these results are remarkably similar to those of NYT/Siena, with voters from 40-44 likely skewing the "40-64" age group more towards Jackson. It will be interesting to see whether the predictions from NYT/Siena and WaPo/Schar end up more accurate than those of all other select polls.

Jackson Wins Some Support from Trump Voters

• 5% of 2024 Trump voters responded that they would vote for Troy Jackson in 2026, a promising sign of how he could outperform Collins.

• While 8% of Harris voters said they would vote for Collins, this is unsurprising given Collins' electoral history—she won in a state where Biden defeated Trump by a strong 9-point margin.

Jackson Back On Top

• This poll marks the first "select poll" since the NYT/Siena poll to suggest that Troy Jackson will defeat Susan Collins in the Senate race.

Age Group Trend Emerges

• Analyzing results by age group shows that Jackson has solidified support among under-45 voters. However, an interesting shift between the 45-64 age group and the 65+ age group continues: in the four most recent select polls, the 65+ age group was more supportive of Jackson relative to the 45-64 age group. Unlike the latest NYT/Siena poll, however, Jackson still has a slight disadvantage among 65+ voters.

Voters Believe Collins Will Win

• Despite the majority of respondents supporting Troy Jackson, 57% of respondents also stated that they believed Susan Collins would win in November. This reflects my own analysis of previous polling error, where, despite losing in polls, Susan Collins was re-elected in 2020. 

Collins Wins

• This poll marks the first "select poll" that predicts Collins will win since Troy Jackson became the official candidate for the Democratic Party, which—depending on the direction of future polling—may prove dangerous for Jackson

Abnormal Results By Age Group

• Analyzing results by age group shows where polling may be skewed. Jackson performs uncharacteristically poorly with voters under 30 while beating Collins with voters over 65, essentially the opposite result of all other available polling. Unless this trend continues with other polls, these results likely mischaracterize the electorate.

• Similarly, voters aged 65+ were more likely to support Democrats winning in the Senate than voters under 30. This similar pattern suggests the results are likely unreliable—unless future polling backs it.

Generational Gap Persists

• Each poll shows Jackson performing significantly better with younger voters—particularly voters under 34—compared to voters over 65, who tend to favor Collins.

Susan Collins Undefeated With Trump Voters

• In stark contrast to polling from Texas and Michigan, Susan Collins is undefeated among Trump voters: 99% of respondents stated that they would vote for Collins, and 0% stated they would vote for Jackson. While Trump lost Maine in 2024, Jackson lacks the same strength with Harris voters, 4% of whom stated they would vote for Collins in the midterms.

Low Undecided Rate

• The poll has a remarkably low "Undecided" figure relative to other polls, making it an outlier in Maine polling.

Jackson Continues to Outperform With College Graduates

• Despite Jackson focusing on his working-class background and time as a logger, he once again performs strongest with college graduates (63% - 32%) and loses with non-college graduates (39% - 50%).

Higher Voter Uncertainty Among Younger Voters

• 13% of voters under 45 either voted third party or were undecided, a far higher margin compared to voters between 45 and 64 (8%) and voters over 65 (6%).

Independents Support Jackson Over Collins

• Jackson leads 40% - 32% with Independents, a good sign in a blue state.

• 28% of Independents did not vote for either Jackson or Collins, meaning the final total may look very different.

Limited Real Support for Jackson

• The majority of Troy Jackson's supporters (71%) state that their vote is a vote against Collins, instead of a vote in favor of Jackson. Just 29% state that they are voting specifically for Jackson. This suggests that Jackson has failed to effectively inspire voters, who could potentially be swayed back to Collins.

Jackson Outperforms With College Graduates

• Despite Jackson focusing on his working-class background and time as a logger, he performs strongest with college graduates (61% - 35%) and loses with non-college graduates (38% - 53%).

Mainers Support Democrats—But Not Necessarily Jackson

• As is expected in a consistently blue state, 55% of respondents stated they would prefer having Democrats in control of the Senate instead of Republicans—seven points higher than the percentage who stated they wanted to vote for Troy Jackson. 44% stated they would prefer the Republicans having control, a similar number to the percentage who will vote for Collins.

Concerns Over Collins' Voting Record

• 55% of respondents stated that they were concerned about Senator Susan Collins voting with Donald Trump "too often," giving Jackson room to grow his support.

Collins Outperforms Other Republicans

• The official gubernatorial candidate for the Republicans, Robert "Bobby" Charles, is supported by just 38% of voters. The third-party candidate, Rick Bennett, receives 9% support, whereas Hannah Pingree matches Troy Jackson with 48% support.

  • Maine uses ranked-choice voting, meaning Rick Bennett's supporters would be able to rank either Pingree or Charles second. Given Bennett's recent shift away from the GOP, his supporters will likely be split.